Exel Composites (Finland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.01
| EXL1V Stock | EUR 0.33 0.02 6.45% |
Exel |
Exel Composites Target Price Odds to finish below 0.01
The tendency of Exel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 0.01 or more in 90 days |
| 0.33 | 90 days | 0.01 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Exel Composites to drop to € 0.01 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Exel Composites Oyj probability density function shows the probability of Exel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Exel Composites Oyj price to stay between € 0.01 and its current price of €0.33 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.25 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Exel Composites Oyj has a beta of -0.21 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Exel Composites are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Exel Composites Oyj is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Exel Composites Oyj has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Exel Composites Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Exel Composites
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exel Composites Oyj. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exel Composites' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Exel Composites Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Exel Composites is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Exel Composites' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Exel Composites Oyj, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Exel Composites within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Exel Composites Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Exel Composites for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Exel Composites Oyj can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Exel Composites Oyj generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Exel Composites Oyj has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Exel Composites Oyj has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Exel Composites Oyj has accumulated 13.43 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 146.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Exel Composites Oyj has a current ratio of 0.97, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Exel Composites until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Exel Composites' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Exel Composites Oyj sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Exel to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Exel Composites' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Exel Composites Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Exel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Exel Composites' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exel Composites' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.8 M |
Exel Composites Technical Analysis
Exel Composites' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Exel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Exel Composites Oyj. In general, you should focus on analyzing Exel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Exel Composites Predictive Forecast Models
Exel Composites' time-series forecasting models is one of many Exel Composites' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Exel Composites' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Exel Composites Oyj
Checking the ongoing alerts about Exel Composites for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Exel Composites Oyj help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Exel Composites Oyj generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Exel Composites Oyj has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Exel Composites Oyj has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Exel Composites Oyj has accumulated 13.43 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 146.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Exel Composites Oyj has a current ratio of 0.97, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Exel Composites until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Exel Composites' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Exel Composites Oyj sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Exel to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Exel Composites' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Other Information on Investing in Exel Stock
Exel Composites financial ratios help investors to determine whether Exel Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Exel with respect to the benefits of owning Exel Composites security.