ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL (Nigeria) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 24.44
| ETI Stock | 27.00 1.50 5.88% |
ECOBANK |
ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL Target Price Odds to finish below 24.44
The tendency of ECOBANK Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 24.44 or more in 90 days |
| 27.00 | 90 days | 24.44 | about 40.55 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL to drop to 24.44 or more in 90 days from now is about 40.55 (This ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL INCORPORATED probability density function shows the probability of ECOBANK Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL price to stay between 24.44 and its current price of 27.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 58.47 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL has a beta of 0.27 suggesting as returns on the market go up, ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL INCORPORATED will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL INCORPORATED has an alpha of 0.3177, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL INCORPORATED, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.95 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL Technical Analysis
ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ECOBANK Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL INCORPORATED. In general, you should focus on analyzing ECOBANK Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL Predictive Forecast Models
ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL's time-series forecasting models is one of many ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL options trading.
Additional Tools for ECOBANK Stock Analysis
When running ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL's price analysis, check to measure ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL is operating at the current time. Most of ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ECOBANK TRANSNATIONAL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.