Telecom Egypt (Egypt) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 26.81
| ETEL Stock | 34.22 0.02 0.06% |
Telecom |
Telecom Egypt Target Price Odds to finish below 26.81
The tendency of Telecom Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 26.81 or more in 90 days |
| 34.22 | 90 days | 26.81 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Telecom Egypt to drop to 26.81 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Telecom Egypt probability density function shows the probability of Telecom Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Telecom Egypt price to stay between 26.81 and its current price of 34.22 at the end of the 90-day period is about 74.22 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Telecom Egypt has a beta of -0.45 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Telecom Egypt are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Telecom Egypt is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Telecom Egypt has an alpha of 0.1697, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Telecom Egypt Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Telecom Egypt
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Telecom Egypt. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Telecom Egypt Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Telecom Egypt is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Telecom Egypt's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Telecom Egypt, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Telecom Egypt within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Telecom Egypt Technical Analysis
Telecom Egypt's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Telecom Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Telecom Egypt. In general, you should focus on analyzing Telecom Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Telecom Egypt Predictive Forecast Models
Telecom Egypt's time-series forecasting models is one of many Telecom Egypt's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Telecom Egypt's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Telecom Egypt in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Telecom Egypt's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Telecom Egypt options trading.