Essent Group Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 51.68
| ESNT Stock | USD 55.49 0.33 0.60% |
Closest to current price Essent long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Essent |
Essent Target Price Odds to finish below 51.68
The tendency of Essent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 51.68 or more in 90 days |
| 55.49 | 90 days | 51.68 | about 1.08 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Essent to drop to $ 51.68 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.08 (This Essent Group probability density function shows the probability of Essent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Essent Group price to stay between $ 51.68 and its current price of $55.49 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.82 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Essent has a beta of 0.93 suggesting Essent Group market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Essent is expected to follow. Additionally Essent Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Essent Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Essent
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Essent Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Essent Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Essent is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Essent's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Essent Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Essent within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.93 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.59 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Essent Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Essent for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Essent Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Essent Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Essent Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Essent Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Essent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Essent's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Essent's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 107.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 141.8 M |
Essent Technical Analysis
Essent's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Essent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Essent Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Essent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Essent Predictive Forecast Models
Essent's time-series forecasting models is one of many Essent's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Essent's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Essent Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Essent for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Essent Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Essent Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Essent Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Tools for Essent Stock Analysis
When running Essent's price analysis, check to measure Essent's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Essent is operating at the current time. Most of Essent's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Essent's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Essent's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Essent to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.