Eros International (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 20.6
| EROSMEDIA | 14.98 0.30 1.96% |
Eros |
Eros International Target Price Odds to finish over 20.6
The tendency of Eros Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 20.60 or more in 90 days |
| 14.98 | 90 days | 20.60 | about 9.2 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Eros International to move over 20.60 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.2 (This Eros International Media probability density function shows the probability of Eros Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Eros International Media price to stay between its current price of 14.98 and 20.60 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Eros International has a beta of 0.56 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Eros International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Eros International Media will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Eros International Media has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Eros International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Eros International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eros International Media. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Eros International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Eros International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Eros International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Eros International Media, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Eros International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.3 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.56 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Eros International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Eros International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Eros International Media can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Eros International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Eros International has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Eros International has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 6.81 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.17 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 223 M. | |
| About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Eros International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Eros Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Eros International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Eros International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 95.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 917.7 M |
Eros International Technical Analysis
Eros International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Eros Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Eros International Media. In general, you should focus on analyzing Eros Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Eros International Predictive Forecast Models
Eros International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Eros International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Eros International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Eros International Media
Checking the ongoing alerts about Eros International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Eros International Media help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Eros International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Eros International has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Eros International has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 6.81 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.17 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 223 M. | |
| About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Eros Stock
Eros International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Eros Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Eros with respect to the benefits of owning Eros International security.