Esprinet SpA (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.09
| EP4A Stock | EUR 4.08 0.19 4.45% |
Esprinet |
Esprinet SpA Target Price Odds to finish below 5.09
The tendency of Esprinet Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 5.09 after 90 days |
| 4.08 | 90 days | 5.09 | about 46.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Esprinet SpA to stay under € 5.09 after 90 days from now is about 46.81 (This Esprinet SpA probability density function shows the probability of Esprinet Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Esprinet SpA price to stay between its current price of € 4.08 and € 5.09 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Esprinet SpA has a beta of 0.41 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Esprinet SpA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Esprinet SpA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Esprinet SpA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Esprinet SpA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Esprinet SpA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Esprinet SpA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Esprinet SpA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Esprinet SpA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Esprinet SpA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Esprinet SpA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Esprinet SpA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.56 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.26 |
Esprinet SpA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Esprinet SpA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Esprinet SpA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Esprinet SpA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 42.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Esprinet SpA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Esprinet Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Esprinet SpA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Esprinet SpA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 49.4 M |
Esprinet SpA Technical Analysis
Esprinet SpA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Esprinet Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Esprinet SpA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Esprinet Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Esprinet SpA Predictive Forecast Models
Esprinet SpA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Esprinet SpA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Esprinet SpA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Esprinet SpA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Esprinet SpA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Esprinet SpA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Esprinet SpA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 42.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Esprinet Stock
Esprinet SpA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Esprinet Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Esprinet with respect to the benefits of owning Esprinet SpA security.