Engro (Pakistan) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 385.62

ENGRO Stock   377.81  2.26  0.59%   
Engro's future price is the expected price of Engro instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Engro performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Engro Backtesting, Engro Valuation, Engro Correlation, Engro Hype Analysis, Engro Volatility, Engro History as well as Engro Performance.
  
Please specify Engro's target price for which you would like Engro odds to be computed.

Engro Target Price Odds to finish over 385.62

The tendency of Engro Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over  385.62  or more in 90 days
 377.81 90 days 385.62 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Engro to move over  385.62  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Engro probability density function shows the probability of Engro Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Engro price to stay between its current price of  377.81  and  385.62  at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Engro has a beta of 0.0452 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Engro average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Engro will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Engro has an alpha of 0.3058, implying that it can generate a 0.31 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Engro Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Engro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Engro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
378.23380.07381.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
342.06423.02424.86
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
381.41383.25385.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
321.80342.12362.45
Details

Engro Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Engro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Engro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Engro, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Engro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.31
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.05
σ
Overall volatility
13.21
Ir
Information ratio 0.11

Engro Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Engro Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Engro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Engro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding576.2 M
Dividends Paid28.8 B
Short Long Term Debt46.4 B

Engro Technical Analysis

Engro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Engro Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Engro. In general, you should focus on analyzing Engro Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Engro Predictive Forecast Models

Engro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Engro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Engro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Engro in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Engro's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Engro options trading.

Other Information on Investing in Engro Stock

Engro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Engro Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Engro with respect to the benefits of owning Engro security.