Emaar Misr (Egypt) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.82
| EMFD Stock | 7.99 0.19 2.44% |
Emaar |
Emaar Misr Target Price Odds to finish below 7.82
The tendency of Emaar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 7.82 or more in 90 days |
| 7.99 | 90 days | 7.82 | about 32.22 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Emaar Misr to drop to 7.82 or more in 90 days from now is about 32.22 (This Emaar Misr for probability density function shows the probability of Emaar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Emaar Misr for price to stay between 7.82 and its current price of 7.99 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Emaar Misr for has a beta of -0.0947 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Emaar Misr are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Emaar Misr for is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Emaar Misr for has an alpha of 0.1463, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Emaar Misr Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Emaar Misr
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Emaar Misr for. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Emaar Misr Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Emaar Misr is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Emaar Misr's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Emaar Misr for, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Emaar Misr within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Emaar Misr Technical Analysis
Emaar Misr's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Emaar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Emaar Misr for. In general, you should focus on analyzing Emaar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Emaar Misr Predictive Forecast Models
Emaar Misr's time-series forecasting models is one of many Emaar Misr's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Emaar Misr's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Emaar Misr in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Emaar Misr's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Emaar Misr options trading.