Egypt Aluminum (Egypt) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 101.22
| EGAL Stock | 116.37 1.01 0.88% |
Egypt |
Egypt Aluminum Target Price Odds to finish below 101.22
The tendency of Egypt Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 101.22 or more in 90 days |
| 116.37 | 90 days | 101.22 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Egypt Aluminum to drop to 101.22 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Egypt Aluminum probability density function shows the probability of Egypt Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Egypt Aluminum price to stay between 101.22 and its current price of 116.37 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.45 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Egypt Aluminum has a beta of -0.18 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Egypt Aluminum are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Egypt Aluminum is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Egypt Aluminum has an alpha of 0.0827, implying that it can generate a 0.0827 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Egypt Aluminum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Egypt Aluminum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Egypt Aluminum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Egypt Aluminum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Egypt Aluminum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Egypt Aluminum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Egypt Aluminum, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Egypt Aluminum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Egypt Aluminum Technical Analysis
Egypt Aluminum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Egypt Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Egypt Aluminum. In general, you should focus on analyzing Egypt Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Egypt Aluminum Predictive Forecast Models
Egypt Aluminum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Egypt Aluminum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Egypt Aluminum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Egypt Aluminum in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Egypt Aluminum's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Egypt Aluminum options trading.