Educational Development Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.56
| EDUC Stock | USD 1.72 0.11 6.83% |
Educational |
Educational Development Target Price Odds to finish over 1.56
The tendency of Educational Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 1.56 in 90 days |
| 1.72 | 90 days | 1.56 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Educational Development to stay above $ 1.56 in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Educational Development probability density function shows the probability of Educational Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Educational Development price to stay between $ 1.56 and its current price of $1.72 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.54 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Educational Development has a beta of 0.38 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Educational Development average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Educational Development will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Educational Development has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Educational Development Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Educational Development
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Educational Development. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Educational Development's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Educational Development Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Educational Development is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Educational Development's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Educational Development, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Educational Development within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.59 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.25 |
Educational Development Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Educational Development for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Educational Development can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Educational Development generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Educational Development may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Educational Development has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Walker Dunlop Finances 245 Million for Jersey City Development |
Educational Development Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Educational Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Educational Development's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Educational Development's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 844.5 K |
Educational Development Technical Analysis
Educational Development's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Educational Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Educational Development. In general, you should focus on analyzing Educational Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Educational Development Predictive Forecast Models
Educational Development's time-series forecasting models is one of many Educational Development's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Educational Development's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Educational Development
Checking the ongoing alerts about Educational Development for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Educational Development help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Educational Development generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Educational Development may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Educational Development has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 27.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Walker Dunlop Finances 245 Million for Jersey City Development |
Check out Educational Development Backtesting, Educational Development Valuation, Educational Development Correlation, Educational Development Hype Analysis, Educational Development Volatility, Educational Development History as well as Educational Development Performance. For information on how to trade Educational Stock refer to our How to Trade Educational Stock guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Educational Development. If investors know Educational will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Educational Development listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.2 K | Earnings Share (0.32) | Revenue Per Share 5.13 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.39) | Return On Assets (0.05) |
The market value of Educational Development is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Educational that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Educational Development's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Educational Development's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Educational Development's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Educational Development's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Educational Development's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Educational Development is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Educational Development's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.