Dreyfus Municipal Bond Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 12.4
| DMBCX Fund | USD 12.10 0.03 0.25% |
Dreyfus |
Dreyfus Municipal Target Price Odds to finish below 12.4
The tendency of Dreyfus Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 12.40 after 90 days |
| 12.10 | 90 days | 12.40 | more than 94.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dreyfus Municipal to stay under $ 12.40 after 90 days from now is more than 94.0 (This Dreyfus Municipal Bond probability density function shows the probability of Dreyfus Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dreyfus Municipal Bond price to stay between its current price of $ 12.10 and $ 12.40 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.51 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Dreyfus Municipal Bond has a beta of -0.0393 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Dreyfus Municipal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Dreyfus Municipal Bond is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Dreyfus Municipal Bond has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Dreyfus Municipal Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Dreyfus Municipal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dreyfus Municipal Bond. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dreyfus Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dreyfus Municipal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dreyfus Municipal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dreyfus Municipal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dreyfus Municipal Bond, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dreyfus Municipal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
Dreyfus Municipal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dreyfus Municipal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dreyfus Municipal Bond can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Dreyfus Municipal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Dreyfus Municipal Bond retains most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments. |
Dreyfus Municipal Technical Analysis
Dreyfus Municipal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dreyfus Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dreyfus Municipal Bond. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dreyfus Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Dreyfus Municipal Predictive Forecast Models
Dreyfus Municipal's time-series forecasting models is one of many Dreyfus Municipal's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dreyfus Municipal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Dreyfus Municipal Bond
Checking the ongoing alerts about Dreyfus Municipal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dreyfus Municipal Bond help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Dreyfus Municipal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Dreyfus Municipal Bond retains most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments. |
Other Information on Investing in Dreyfus Mutual Fund
Dreyfus Municipal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Dreyfus Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Dreyfus with respect to the benefits of owning Dreyfus Municipal security.
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