Devon Energy (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 219.49
| D1VN34 Stock | BRL 194.40 1.80 0.92% |
Devon |
Devon Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 219.49
The tendency of Devon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under R$ 219.49 after 90 days |
| 194.40 | 90 days | 219.49 | about 44.07 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Devon Energy to stay under R$ 219.49 after 90 days from now is about 44.07 (This Devon Energy probability density function shows the probability of Devon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Devon Energy price to stay between its current price of R$ 194.40 and R$ 219.49 at the end of the 90-day period is about 43.93 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Devon Energy has a beta of -0.0336 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Devon Energy are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Devon Energy is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Devon Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Devon Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Devon Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Devon Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Devon Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Devon Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Devon Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Devon Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Devon Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Devon Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Devon Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Devon Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Devon Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Devon Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Devon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Devon Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Devon Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.082 | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 26.76 | |
| Shares Float | 648.6 M |
Devon Energy Technical Analysis
Devon Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Devon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Devon Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Devon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Devon Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Devon Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Devon Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Devon Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Devon Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Devon Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Devon Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Devon Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Devon Stock
When determining whether Devon Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Devon Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Devon Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Devon Energy Stock:Check out Devon Energy Backtesting, Devon Energy Valuation, Devon Energy Correlation, Devon Energy Hype Analysis, Devon Energy Volatility, Devon Energy History as well as Devon Energy Performance. For information on how to trade Devon Stock refer to our How to Trade Devon Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.