Citi Trends Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.63
| CTRN Stock | USD 26.85 0.37 1.40% |
Citi |
Citi Trends Target Price Odds to finish below 13.63
The tendency of Citi Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 13.63 or more in 90 days |
| 26.85 | 90 days | 13.63 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Citi Trends to drop to $ 13.63 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Citi Trends probability density function shows the probability of Citi Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Citi Trends price to stay between $ 13.63 and its current price of $26.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 97.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Citi Trends has a beta of 0.61 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Citi Trends average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Citi Trends will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Citi Trends has an alpha of 0.6101, implying that it can generate a 0.61 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Citi Trends Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Citi Trends
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citi Trends. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Citi Trends Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Citi Trends is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Citi Trends' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Citi Trends, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Citi Trends within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
Citi Trends Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Citi Trends for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Citi Trends can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Citi Trends appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 747.94 M. Net Loss for the year was (11.98 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 310.99 M. | |
| Citi Trends currently holds about 27.91 M in cash with (9.58 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.42. | |
| Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from cnbc.com: Disposition of 12000 shares by Duskin Jonathan of Citi Trends at 26.4393 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Citi Trends Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Citi Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Citi Trends' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Citi Trends' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 79.7 M |
Citi Trends Technical Analysis
Citi Trends' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Citi Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Citi Trends. In general, you should focus on analyzing Citi Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Citi Trends Predictive Forecast Models
Citi Trends' time-series forecasting models is one of many Citi Trends' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Citi Trends' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Citi Trends
Checking the ongoing alerts about Citi Trends for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Citi Trends help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Citi Trends appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 747.94 M. Net Loss for the year was (11.98 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 310.99 M. | |
| Citi Trends currently holds about 27.91 M in cash with (9.58 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.42. | |
| Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from cnbc.com: Disposition of 12000 shares by Duskin Jonathan of Citi Trends at 26.4393 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Citi Trends Backtesting, Citi Trends Valuation, Citi Trends Correlation, Citi Trends Hype Analysis, Citi Trends Volatility, Citi Trends History as well as Citi Trends Performance. To learn how to invest in Citi Stock, please use our How to Invest in Citi Trends guide.You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Citi Trends. If investors know Citi will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Citi Trends listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | Earnings Share (3.06) | Revenue Per Share 91.639 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.017 | Return On Assets (0.04) |
The market value of Citi Trends is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Citi that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Citi Trends' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Citi Trends' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Citi Trends' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Citi Trends' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Citi Trends' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Citi Trends is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Citi Trends' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.