Castellum Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 37.30
| CTM Stock | USD 1.38 0.80 137.93% |
Castellum |
Castellum Target Price Odds to finish over 37.30
The tendency of Castellum Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 37.30 or more in 90 days |
| 1.38 | 90 days | 37.30 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Castellum to move over $ 37.30 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Castellum probability density function shows the probability of Castellum Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Castellum price to stay between its current price of $ 1.38 and $ 37.30 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.09 suggesting Castellum market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Castellum is expected to follow. In addition to that Castellum has an alpha of 2.3943, implying that it can generate a 2.39 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Castellum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Castellum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Castellum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Castellum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Castellum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Castellum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Castellum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Castellum, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Castellum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 2.39 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
Castellum Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Castellum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Castellum can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Castellum is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Castellum may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Castellum appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Castellum has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 45.24 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (17.8 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 17.6 M. | |
| Castellum has about 1.85 M in cash with (2.26 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.05. | |
| Castellum has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 48.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Castellum, Inc. Announces Pricing of 3.6 Million Registered Direct Offering |
Castellum Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Castellum Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Castellum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Castellum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 M |
Castellum Technical Analysis
Castellum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Castellum Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Castellum. In general, you should focus on analyzing Castellum Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Castellum Predictive Forecast Models
Castellum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Castellum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Castellum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Castellum
Checking the ongoing alerts about Castellum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Castellum help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Castellum is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Castellum may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Castellum appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Castellum has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 45.24 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (17.8 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 17.6 M. | |
| Castellum has about 1.85 M in cash with (2.26 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.05. | |
| Castellum has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 48.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Castellum, Inc. Announces Pricing of 3.6 Million Registered Direct Offering |
Check out Castellum Backtesting, Castellum Valuation, Castellum Correlation, Castellum Hype Analysis, Castellum Volatility, Castellum History as well as Castellum Performance. To learn how to invest in Castellum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Castellum guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Castellum. If investors know Castellum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Castellum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.17) | Revenue Per Share 0.886 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) | Return On Assets (0.14) | Return On Equity (1.02) |
The market value of Castellum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Castellum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Castellum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Castellum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Castellum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Castellum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Castellum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Castellum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Castellum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.