Cairn Homes (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 168.52
| CRN Stock | 192.80 2.36 1.24% |
Cairn |
Cairn Homes Target Price Odds to finish below 168.52
The tendency of Cairn Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 168.52 or more in 90 days |
| 192.80 | 90 days | 168.52 | about 8.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cairn Homes to drop to 168.52 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.85 (This Cairn Homes PLC probability density function shows the probability of Cairn Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cairn Homes PLC price to stay between 168.52 and its current price of 192.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 86.17 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cairn Homes has a beta of 0.39 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cairn Homes average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cairn Homes PLC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cairn Homes PLC has an alpha of 0.27, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cairn Homes Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cairn Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cairn Homes PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cairn Homes Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cairn Homes is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cairn Homes' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cairn Homes PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cairn Homes within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Cairn Homes Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cairn Homes for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cairn Homes PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Cairn Homes Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cairn Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cairn Homes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cairn Homes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 678.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 25.6 M |
Cairn Homes Technical Analysis
Cairn Homes' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cairn Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cairn Homes PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cairn Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cairn Homes Predictive Forecast Models
Cairn Homes' time-series forecasting models is one of many Cairn Homes' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cairn Homes' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cairn Homes PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cairn Homes for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cairn Homes PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Other Information on Investing in Cairn Stock
Cairn Homes financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cairn Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cairn with respect to the benefits of owning Cairn Homes security.