CITIC (Germany) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.66
| CPF Stock | EUR 1.06 0.01 0.93% |
CITIC |
CITIC Target Price Odds to finish below 0.66
The tendency of CITIC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 0.66 or more in 90 days |
| 1.06 | 90 days | 0.66 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CITIC to drop to € 0.66 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This CITIC Limited probability density function shows the probability of CITIC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CITIC Limited price to stay between € 0.66 and its current price of €1.06 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.97 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon CITIC has a beta of 0.44 suggesting as returns on the market go up, CITIC average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CITIC Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CITIC Limited has an alpha of 0.7792, implying that it can generate a 0.78 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). CITIC Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CITIC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CITIC Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CITIC Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CITIC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CITIC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CITIC Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CITIC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.78 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
CITIC Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CITIC for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CITIC Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CITIC Limited has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| CITIC Limited had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| CITIC Limited has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| CITIC Limited has accumulated about 185.12 B in cash with (40.69 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.36, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 78.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
CITIC Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CITIC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CITIC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CITIC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.1 B |
CITIC Technical Analysis
CITIC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CITIC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CITIC Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing CITIC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CITIC Predictive Forecast Models
CITIC's time-series forecasting models is one of many CITIC's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CITIC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CITIC Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about CITIC for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CITIC Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CITIC Limited has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| CITIC Limited had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| CITIC Limited has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| CITIC Limited has accumulated about 185.12 B in cash with (40.69 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.36, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 78.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in CITIC Stock
CITIC financial ratios help investors to determine whether CITIC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CITIC with respect to the benefits of owning CITIC security.