CONOIL PLC (Nigeria) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 80.2
| CONOIL Stock | 387.20 35.20 10.00% |
CONOIL |
CONOIL PLC Target Price Odds to finish below 80.2
The tendency of CONOIL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 80.20 or more in 90 days |
| 387.20 | 90 days | 80.20 | about 1.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CONOIL PLC to drop to 80.20 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.0 (This CONOIL PLC probability density function shows the probability of CONOIL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CONOIL PLC price to stay between 80.20 and its current price of 387.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 99.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CONOIL PLC has a beta of 0.3 suggesting as returns on the market go up, CONOIL PLC average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CONOIL PLC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover CONOIL PLC has an alpha of 1.2882, implying that it can generate a 1.29 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). CONOIL PLC Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CONOIL PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CONOIL PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CONOIL PLC Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CONOIL PLC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CONOIL PLC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CONOIL PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CONOIL PLC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 58.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.37 |
CONOIL PLC Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CONOIL PLC for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CONOIL PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CONOIL PLC appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
CONOIL PLC Technical Analysis
CONOIL PLC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CONOIL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CONOIL PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing CONOIL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CONOIL PLC Predictive Forecast Models
CONOIL PLC's time-series forecasting models is one of many CONOIL PLC's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CONOIL PLC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CONOIL PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about CONOIL PLC for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CONOIL PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CONOIL PLC appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |