Coffee Day (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.39
| COFFEEDAY | 26.41 1.39 5.00% |
Coffee |
Coffee Day Target Price Odds to finish below 23.39
The tendency of Coffee Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 23.39 or more in 90 days |
| 26.41 | 90 days | 23.39 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Coffee Day to drop to 23.39 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Coffee Day Enterprises probability density function shows the probability of Coffee Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Coffee Day Enterprises price to stay between 23.39 and its current price of 26.41 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.65 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Coffee Day has a beta of 0.14 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Coffee Day average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Coffee Day Enterprises will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Coffee Day Enterprises has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Coffee Day Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Coffee Day
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Coffee Day Enterprises. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Coffee Day's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Coffee Day Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Coffee Day is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Coffee Day's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Coffee Day Enterprises, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Coffee Day within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.47 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
Coffee Day Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Coffee Day for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Coffee Day Enterprises can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Coffee Day generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Coffee Day has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 10.07 B. Net Loss for the year was (3.23 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.55 B. | |
| About 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Coffee Day Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Coffee Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Coffee Day's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Coffee Day's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 211.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 B |
Coffee Day Technical Analysis
Coffee Day's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Coffee Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Coffee Day Enterprises. In general, you should focus on analyzing Coffee Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Coffee Day Predictive Forecast Models
Coffee Day's time-series forecasting models is one of many Coffee Day's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Coffee Day's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Coffee Day Enterprises
Checking the ongoing alerts about Coffee Day for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Coffee Day Enterprises help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Coffee Day generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Coffee Day has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 10.07 B. Net Loss for the year was (3.23 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.55 B. | |
| About 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Coffee Stock
Coffee Day financial ratios help investors to determine whether Coffee Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Coffee with respect to the benefits of owning Coffee Day security.