Connect Biopharma Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.24
| CNTB Stock | USD 1.01 0.06 6.32% |
Connect |
Connect Biopharma Target Price Odds to finish below 1.24
The tendency of Connect Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 1.24 after 90 days |
| 1.01 | 90 days | 1.24 | about 69.03 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Connect Biopharma to stay under $ 1.24 after 90 days from now is about 69.03 (This Connect Biopharma Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Connect Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Connect Biopharma price to stay between its current price of $ 1.01 and $ 1.24 at the end of the 90-day period is about 56.48 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Connect Biopharma has a beta of 0.2 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Connect Biopharma average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Connect Biopharma Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Connect Biopharma Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Connect Biopharma Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Connect Biopharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Connect Biopharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Connect Biopharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Connect Biopharma Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Connect Biopharma is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Connect Biopharma's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Connect Biopharma Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Connect Biopharma within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Connect Biopharma Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Connect Biopharma for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Connect Biopharma can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Connect Biopharma generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Connect Biopharma has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Connect Biopharma has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Net Loss for the year was (59.38 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Connect Biopharma Holdings currently holds about 1.28 B in cash with (47.93 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 23.26, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Connect Biopharma has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 41.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: CNTB Stock Surges 5.56 percent Amid Strong Biotech Sector Performance |
Connect Biopharma Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Connect Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Connect Biopharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Connect Biopharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 118.7 M |
Connect Biopharma Technical Analysis
Connect Biopharma's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Connect Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Connect Biopharma Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Connect Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Connect Biopharma Predictive Forecast Models
Connect Biopharma's time-series forecasting models is one of many Connect Biopharma's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Connect Biopharma's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Connect Biopharma
Checking the ongoing alerts about Connect Biopharma for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Connect Biopharma help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Connect Biopharma generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Connect Biopharma has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Connect Biopharma has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Net Loss for the year was (59.38 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Connect Biopharma Holdings currently holds about 1.28 B in cash with (47.93 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 23.26, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Connect Biopharma has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 41.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: CNTB Stock Surges 5.56 percent Amid Strong Biotech Sector Performance |
Check out Connect Biopharma Backtesting, Connect Biopharma Valuation, Connect Biopharma Correlation, Connect Biopharma Hype Analysis, Connect Biopharma Volatility, Connect Biopharma History as well as Connect Biopharma Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Connect Biopharma. If investors know Connect will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Connect Biopharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.39) | Revenue Per Share 0.438 | Return On Assets (0.12) | Return On Equity (0.18) |
The market value of Connect Biopharma is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Connect that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Connect Biopharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Connect Biopharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Connect Biopharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Connect Biopharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Connect Biopharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Connect Biopharma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Connect Biopharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.