Claros Mortgage Trust Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6.44
| CMTG Stock | USD 6.46 0.04 0.62% |
Claros |
Claros Mortgage Target Price Odds to finish below 6.44
The tendency of Claros Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 6.44 or more in 90 days |
| 6.46 | 90 days | 6.44 | about 22.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Claros Mortgage to drop to $ 6.44 or more in 90 days from now is about 22.79 (This Claros Mortgage Trust probability density function shows the probability of Claros Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Claros Mortgage Trust price to stay between $ 6.44 and its current price of $6.46 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.08 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Claros Mortgage will likely underperform. Additionally Claros Mortgage Trust has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Claros Mortgage Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Claros Mortgage
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Claros Mortgage Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Claros Mortgage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Claros Mortgage Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Claros Mortgage is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Claros Mortgage's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Claros Mortgage Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Claros Mortgage within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.45 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Claros Mortgage Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Claros Mortgage for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Claros Mortgage Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Claros Mortgage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Claros Mortgage has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Claros Mortgage has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of October 2024 Claros Mortgage paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Claros Mortgage Trust Insiders Added US1.67m Of Stock To Their Holdings |
Claros Mortgage Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Claros Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Claros Mortgage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Claros Mortgage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 138.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 187.3 M |
Claros Mortgage Technical Analysis
Claros Mortgage's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Claros Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Claros Mortgage Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Claros Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Claros Mortgage Predictive Forecast Models
Claros Mortgage's time-series forecasting models is one of many Claros Mortgage's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Claros Mortgage's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Claros Mortgage Trust
Checking the ongoing alerts about Claros Mortgage for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Claros Mortgage Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Claros Mortgage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Claros Mortgage has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Claros Mortgage has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of October 2024 Claros Mortgage paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Claros Mortgage Trust Insiders Added US1.67m Of Stock To Their Holdings |
Check out Claros Mortgage Backtesting, Claros Mortgage Valuation, Claros Mortgage Correlation, Claros Mortgage Hype Analysis, Claros Mortgage Volatility, Claros Mortgage History as well as Claros Mortgage Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Claros Mortgage. If investors know Claros will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Claros Mortgage listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.95) | Dividend Share 0.85 | Earnings Share (0.64) | Revenue Per Share 0.364 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.29) |
The market value of Claros Mortgage Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Claros that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Claros Mortgage's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Claros Mortgage's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Claros Mortgage's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Claros Mortgage's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Claros Mortgage's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Claros Mortgage is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Claros Mortgage's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.