Cal-Maine Foods (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 90.68
| CM2 Stock | 91.60 0.10 0.11% |
Cal-Maine |
Cal-Maine Foods Target Price Odds to finish over 90.68
The tendency of Cal-Maine Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 90.68 in 90 days |
| 91.60 | 90 days | 90.68 | about 8.49 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cal-Maine Foods to stay above 90.68 in 90 days from now is about 8.49 (This Cal Maine Foods probability density function shows the probability of Cal-Maine Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cal Maine Foods price to stay between 90.68 and its current price of 91.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.26 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cal-Maine Foods has a beta of 0.3 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cal-Maine Foods average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cal Maine Foods will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cal Maine Foods has an alpha of 0.5258, implying that it can generate a 0.53 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cal-Maine Foods Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cal-Maine Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cal Maine Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cal-Maine Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cal-Maine Foods Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cal-Maine Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cal-Maine Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cal Maine Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cal-Maine Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.53 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.22 |
Cal-Maine Foods Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cal-Maine Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cal-Maine Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cal-Maine Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.9 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 6.1 M |
Cal-Maine Foods Technical Analysis
Cal-Maine Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cal-Maine Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cal Maine Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cal-Maine Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cal-Maine Foods Predictive Forecast Models
Cal-Maine Foods' time-series forecasting models is one of many Cal-Maine Foods' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cal-Maine Foods' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Cal-Maine Foods in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Cal-Maine Foods' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Cal-Maine Foods options trading.
Additional Tools for Cal-Maine Stock Analysis
When running Cal-Maine Foods' price analysis, check to measure Cal-Maine Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cal-Maine Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Cal-Maine Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cal-Maine Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cal-Maine Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cal-Maine Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.