Canadian Imperial Bank Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 99.77
| CM Stock | CAD 90.42 0.28 0.31% |
Canadian |
Canadian Imperial Target Price Odds to finish over 99.77
The tendency of Canadian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over C$ 99.77 or more in 90 days |
| 90.42 | 90 days | 99.77 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Canadian Imperial to move over C$ 99.77 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Canadian Imperial Bank probability density function shows the probability of Canadian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Canadian Imperial Bank price to stay between its current price of C$ 90.42 and C$ 99.77 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.57 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Canadian Imperial has a beta of 0.28 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Canadian Imperial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Canadian Imperial Bank will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Canadian Imperial Bank has an alpha of 0.1965, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Canadian Imperial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Canadian Imperial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Canadian Imperial Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Canadian Imperial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Canadian Imperial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Canadian Imperial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Canadian Imperial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Canadian Imperial Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Canadian Imperial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Canadian Imperial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Canadian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Canadian Imperial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canadian Imperial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 916.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 80.5 B |
Canadian Imperial Technical Analysis
Canadian Imperial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Canadian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Canadian Imperial Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Canadian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Canadian Imperial Predictive Forecast Models
Canadian Imperial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Canadian Imperial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Canadian Imperial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Canadian Imperial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Canadian Imperial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Canadian Imperial options trading.
Check out Canadian Imperial Backtesting, Canadian Imperial Valuation, Canadian Imperial Correlation, Canadian Imperial Hype Analysis, Canadian Imperial Volatility, Canadian Imperial History as well as Canadian Imperial Performance. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.