Calumet Specialty Products Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.27
| CLMT Stock | USD 21.38 0.45 2.06% |
Calumet |
Calumet Specialty Target Price Odds to finish below 12.27
The tendency of Calumet Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.27 or more in 90 days |
| 21.38 | 90 days | 12.27 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Calumet Specialty to drop to $ 12.27 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Calumet Specialty Products probability density function shows the probability of Calumet Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Calumet Specialty price to stay between $ 12.27 and its current price of $21.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.85 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Calumet Specialty has a beta of 0.17 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Calumet Specialty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Calumet Specialty Products will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Calumet Specialty Products has an alpha of 0.4119, implying that it can generate a 0.41 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Calumet Specialty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Calumet Specialty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Calumet Specialty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Calumet Specialty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Calumet Specialty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Calumet Specialty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Calumet Specialty Products, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Calumet Specialty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.10 |
Calumet Specialty Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Calumet Specialty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Calumet Specialty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Calumet Specialty had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Calumet Specialty Products currently holds 2.19 B in liabilities. Calumet Specialty has a current ratio of 0.59, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Calumet Specialty's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Calumet Specialty Products currently holds about 50.5 M in cash with (14.9 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.64. | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Calumet Inc Subsidiary Montana Renewables Secures IRS Approval for Excise Tax Registration |
Calumet Specialty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Calumet Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Calumet Specialty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Calumet Specialty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 80.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.9 M |
Calumet Specialty Technical Analysis
Calumet Specialty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Calumet Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Calumet Specialty Products. In general, you should focus on analyzing Calumet Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Calumet Specialty Predictive Forecast Models
Calumet Specialty's time-series forecasting models is one of many Calumet Specialty's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Calumet Specialty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Calumet Specialty
Checking the ongoing alerts about Calumet Specialty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Calumet Specialty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Calumet Specialty had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Calumet Specialty Products currently holds 2.19 B in liabilities. Calumet Specialty has a current ratio of 0.59, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Calumet Specialty's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Calumet Specialty Products currently holds about 50.5 M in cash with (14.9 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.64. | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Calumet Inc Subsidiary Montana Renewables Secures IRS Approval for Excise Tax Registration |
Additional Tools for Calumet Stock Analysis
When running Calumet Specialty's price analysis, check to measure Calumet Specialty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Calumet Specialty is operating at the current time. Most of Calumet Specialty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Calumet Specialty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Calumet Specialty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Calumet Specialty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.