Concepcion Industrial (Philippines) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.29
| CIC Stock | 13.50 0.18 1.32% |
Concepcion |
Concepcion Industrial Target Price Odds to finish below 12.29
The tendency of Concepcion Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 12.29 or more in 90 days |
| 13.50 | 90 days | 12.29 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Concepcion Industrial to drop to 12.29 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Concepcion Industrial Corp probability density function shows the probability of Concepcion Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Concepcion Industrial price to stay between 12.29 and its current price of 13.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.85 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Concepcion Industrial has a beta of 0.087 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Concepcion Industrial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Concepcion Industrial Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Concepcion Industrial Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Concepcion Industrial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Concepcion Industrial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Concepcion Industrial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Concepcion Industrial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Concepcion Industrial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Concepcion Industrial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Concepcion Industrial Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Concepcion Industrial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Concepcion Industrial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Concepcion Industrial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Concepcion Industrial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Concepcion Industrial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Concepcion Industrial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Concepcion Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Concepcion Industrial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Concepcion Industrial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 401.9 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 668.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.5 B |
Concepcion Industrial Technical Analysis
Concepcion Industrial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Concepcion Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Concepcion Industrial Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Concepcion Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Concepcion Industrial Predictive Forecast Models
Concepcion Industrial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Concepcion Industrial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Concepcion Industrial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Concepcion Industrial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Concepcion Industrial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Concepcion Industrial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Concepcion Industrial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in Concepcion Stock
Concepcion Industrial financial ratios help investors to determine whether Concepcion Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Concepcion with respect to the benefits of owning Concepcion Industrial security.