China Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 13.53
| CHN Fund | USD 13.14 0.01 0.08% |
China |
China Fund Target Price Odds to finish over 13.53
The tendency of China Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 13.53 or more in 90 days |
| 13.14 | 90 days | 13.53 | roughly 2.98 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Fund to move over $ 13.53 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.98 (This China Fund probability density function shows the probability of China Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Fund price to stay between its current price of $ 13.14 and $ 13.53 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.38 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon China Fund has a beta of 0.33 suggesting as returns on the market go up, China Fund average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally China Fund has an alpha of 0.2305, implying that it can generate a 0.23 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). China Fund Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for China Fund
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.China Fund Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Fund is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Fund's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Fund within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.69 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
China Fund Technical Analysis
China Fund's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
China Fund Predictive Forecast Models
China Fund's time-series forecasting models is one of many China Fund's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Fund's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards China Fund in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, China Fund's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from China Fund options trading.
Other Information on Investing in China Fund
China Fund financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Fund security.
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm |