Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 108.58
| CHDN Stock | USD 138.37 0.46 0.33% |
Churchill |
Churchill Downs Target Price Odds to finish below 108.58
The tendency of Churchill Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 108.58 or more in 90 days |
| 138.37 | 90 days | 108.58 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Churchill Downs to drop to $ 108.58 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Churchill Downs Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Churchill Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Churchill Downs price to stay between $ 108.58 and its current price of $138.37 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.79 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.12 suggesting Churchill Downs Incorporated market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Churchill Downs is expected to follow. Additionally Churchill Downs Incorporated has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Churchill Downs Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Churchill Downs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Churchill Downs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Churchill Downs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Churchill Downs Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Churchill Downs is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Churchill Downs' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Churchill Downs Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Churchill Downs within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Churchill Downs Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Churchill Downs for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Churchill Downs can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Churchill Downs generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from upi.com: Disposition of 1018 shares by Bradley Blackwell of Churchill Downs at 123.75 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Churchill Downs Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Churchill Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Churchill Downs' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Churchill Downs' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 76.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 144.5 M |
Churchill Downs Technical Analysis
Churchill Downs' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Churchill Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Churchill Downs Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Churchill Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Churchill Downs Predictive Forecast Models
Churchill Downs' time-series forecasting models is one of many Churchill Downs' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Churchill Downs' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Churchill Downs
Checking the ongoing alerts about Churchill Downs for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Churchill Downs help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Churchill Downs generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from upi.com: Disposition of 1018 shares by Bradley Blackwell of Churchill Downs at 123.75 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Churchill Downs Backtesting, Churchill Downs Valuation, Churchill Downs Correlation, Churchill Downs Hype Analysis, Churchill Downs Volatility, Churchill Downs History as well as Churchill Downs Performance. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Churchill Downs. If investors know Churchill will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Churchill Downs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.089 | Dividend Share 0.382 | Earnings Share 5.53 | Revenue Per Share 35.989 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.098 |
The market value of Churchill Downs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Churchill that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Churchill Downs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Churchill Downs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Churchill Downs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Churchill Downs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Churchill Downs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Churchill Downs is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Churchill Downs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.