Candel Therapeutics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.05

CADL Stock  USD 4.43  0.08  1.77%   
Candel Therapeutics' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Candel Therapeutics. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Candel Therapeutics based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Candel Therapeutics over a specific time period. For example, CADL Option Call 20-12-2024 4 is a CALL option contract on Candel Therapeutics' common stock with a strick price of 4.0 expiring on 2024-12-20. The contract was last traded on 2024-12-04 at 10:46:49 for $1.7 and, as of today, has 15 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.2, and an ask price of $4.6. The implied volatility as of the 5th of December is 15.0. View All Candel options

Closest to current price Candel long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Candel Therapeutics' future price is the expected price of Candel Therapeutics instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Candel Therapeutics performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Candel Therapeutics Backtesting, Candel Therapeutics Valuation, Candel Therapeutics Correlation, Candel Therapeutics Hype Analysis, Candel Therapeutics Volatility, Candel Therapeutics History as well as Candel Therapeutics Performance.
For more information on how to buy Candel Stock please use our How to buy in Candel Stock guide.
  
At this time, Candel Therapeutics' Price Book Value Ratio is quite stable compared to the past year. Price To Book Ratio is expected to rise to 3.50 this year, although the value of Price Earnings Ratio will most likely fall to (1.18). Please specify Candel Therapeutics' target price for which you would like Candel Therapeutics odds to be computed.

Candel Therapeutics Target Price Odds to finish below 0.05

The tendency of Candel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 0.05  or more in 90 days
 4.43 90 days 0.05 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Candel Therapeutics to drop to $ 0.05  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Candel Therapeutics probability density function shows the probability of Candel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Candel Therapeutics price to stay between $ 0.05  and its current price of $4.43 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.7 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.34 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Candel Therapeutics will likely underperform. Additionally Candel Therapeutics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Candel Therapeutics Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Candel Therapeutics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Candel Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Candel Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.224.459.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.905.5510.20
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
8.659.5010.55
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details

Candel Therapeutics Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Candel Therapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Candel Therapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Candel Therapeutics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Candel Therapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.63
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.34
σ
Overall volatility
1.04
Ir
Information ratio -0.13

Candel Therapeutics Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Candel Therapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Candel Therapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Candel Therapeutics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Candel Therapeutics has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Candel Therapeutics has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 31 K. Net Loss for the year was (37.94 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (20.66 M).
Candel Therapeutics currently holds about 86.78 M in cash with (34.24 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.0.
Candel Therapeutics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 30.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from investing.com: Candel therapeutics officer Francesca Barone sells shares worth 100,592

Candel Therapeutics Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Candel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Candel Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Candel Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding28.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments35.4 M

Candel Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Candel Therapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Candel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Candel Therapeutics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Candel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Candel Therapeutics Predictive Forecast Models

Candel Therapeutics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Candel Therapeutics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Candel Therapeutics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Candel Therapeutics

Checking the ongoing alerts about Candel Therapeutics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Candel Therapeutics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Candel Therapeutics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Candel Therapeutics has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Candel Therapeutics has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 31 K. Net Loss for the year was (37.94 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (20.66 M).
Candel Therapeutics currently holds about 86.78 M in cash with (34.24 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.0.
Candel Therapeutics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 30.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from investing.com: Candel therapeutics officer Francesca Barone sells shares worth 100,592
When determining whether Candel Therapeutics is a strong investment it is important to analyze Candel Therapeutics' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Candel Therapeutics' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Candel Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Candel Therapeutics Backtesting, Candel Therapeutics Valuation, Candel Therapeutics Correlation, Candel Therapeutics Hype Analysis, Candel Therapeutics Volatility, Candel Therapeutics History as well as Candel Therapeutics Performance.
For more information on how to buy Candel Stock please use our How to buy in Candel Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Candel Therapeutics. If investors know Candel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Candel Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.73)
Revenue Per Share
0.001
Return On Assets
(0.52)
Return On Equity
(4.81)
The market value of Candel Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Candel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Candel Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Candel Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Candel Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Candel Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Candel Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Candel Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Candel Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.