Bavarian Nordic As Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 11.5
| BVNRY Stock | USD 8.90 0.18 2.06% |
Bavarian |
Bavarian Nordic Target Price Odds to finish below 11.5
The tendency of Bavarian Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 11.50 after 90 days |
| 8.90 | 90 days | 11.50 | roughly 96.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bavarian Nordic to stay under $ 11.50 after 90 days from now is roughly 96.0 (This Bavarian Nordic AS probability density function shows the probability of Bavarian Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bavarian Nordic AS price to stay between its current price of $ 8.90 and $ 11.50 at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.59 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Bavarian Nordic AS has a beta of -0.57 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Bavarian Nordic are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Bavarian Nordic AS is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Bavarian Nordic AS has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Bavarian Nordic Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bavarian Nordic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bavarian Nordic AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bavarian Nordic Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bavarian Nordic is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bavarian Nordic's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bavarian Nordic AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bavarian Nordic within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Bavarian Nordic Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bavarian Nordic for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bavarian Nordic AS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bavarian Nordic AS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.9 B. Net Loss for the year was (464.77 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 570.93 M. | |
| Bavarian Nordic AS has accumulated about 3.25 B in cash with (358.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 15.53, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. |
Bavarian Nordic Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bavarian Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bavarian Nordic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bavarian Nordic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 162.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.7 B |
Bavarian Nordic Technical Analysis
Bavarian Nordic's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bavarian Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bavarian Nordic AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bavarian Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bavarian Nordic Predictive Forecast Models
Bavarian Nordic's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bavarian Nordic's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bavarian Nordic's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bavarian Nordic AS
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bavarian Nordic for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bavarian Nordic AS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bavarian Nordic AS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.9 B. Net Loss for the year was (464.77 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 570.93 M. | |
| Bavarian Nordic AS has accumulated about 3.25 B in cash with (358.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 15.53, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. |
Additional Tools for Bavarian Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Bavarian Nordic's price analysis, check to measure Bavarian Nordic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bavarian Nordic is operating at the current time. Most of Bavarian Nordic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bavarian Nordic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bavarian Nordic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bavarian Nordic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.