BUNZL PLC (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 20.43
| BUZ Stock | 20.00 1.20 5.66% |
BUNZL |
BUNZL PLC Target Price Odds to finish below 20.43
The tendency of BUNZL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 20.43 after 90 days |
| 20.00 | 90 days | 20.43 | about 25.54 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BUNZL PLC to stay under 20.43 after 90 days from now is about 25.54 (This BUNZL PLC ADR probability density function shows the probability of BUNZL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BUNZL PLC ADR price to stay between its current price of 20.00 and 20.43 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.76 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon BUNZL PLC has a beta of 0.18 suggesting as returns on the market go up, BUNZL PLC average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding BUNZL PLC ADR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally BUNZL PLC ADR has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. BUNZL PLC Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BUNZL PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BUNZL PLC ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.BUNZL PLC Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BUNZL PLC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BUNZL PLC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BUNZL PLC ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BUNZL PLC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
BUNZL PLC Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BUNZL PLC for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BUNZL PLC ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| BUNZL PLC ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
BUNZL PLC Technical Analysis
BUNZL PLC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BUNZL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BUNZL PLC ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing BUNZL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BUNZL PLC Predictive Forecast Models
BUNZL PLC's time-series forecasting models is one of many BUNZL PLC's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BUNZL PLC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about BUNZL PLC ADR
Checking the ongoing alerts about BUNZL PLC for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BUNZL PLC ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| BUNZL PLC ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |