British Amer (South Africa) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 53,710
| BTI Stock | 67,297 453.00 0.68% |
British |
British Amer Target Price Odds to finish below 53,710
The tendency of British Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 67,297 | 90 days | 67,297 | about 86.78 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of British Amer to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 86.78 (This British American Tobacco probability density function shows the probability of British Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon British American Tobacco has a beta of -0.13 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding British Amer are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, British American Tobacco is likely to outperform the market. Additionally British American Tobacco has an alpha of 8.0E-4, implying that it can generate a 8.48E-4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). British Amer Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for British Amer
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as British American Tobacco. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.British Amer Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. British Amer is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the British Amer's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold British American Tobacco, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of British Amer within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.0008 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2,719 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
British Amer Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of British Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential British Amer's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. British Amer's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.2 B |
British Amer Technical Analysis
British Amer's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. British Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of British American Tobacco. In general, you should focus on analyzing British Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
British Amer Predictive Forecast Models
British Amer's time-series forecasting models is one of many British Amer's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary British Amer's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards British Amer in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, British Amer's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from British Amer options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in British Stock
When determining whether British American Tobacco offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of British Amer's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of British American Tobacco Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on British American Tobacco Stock:Check out British Amer Backtesting, British Amer Valuation, British Amer Correlation, British Amer Hype Analysis, British Amer Volatility, British Amer History as well as British Amer Performance. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.