Braskem SA (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 17.66

BRKM3 Stock  BRL 14.57  0.53  3.51%   
Braskem SA's future price is the expected price of Braskem SA instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Braskem SA performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Braskem SA Backtesting, Braskem SA Valuation, Braskem SA Correlation, Braskem SA Hype Analysis, Braskem SA Volatility, Braskem SA History as well as Braskem SA Performance.
  
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Braskem SA Target Price Odds to finish over 17.66

The tendency of Braskem Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over R$ 17.66  or more in 90 days
 14.57 90 days 17.66 
about 41.86
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Braskem SA to move over R$ 17.66  or more in 90 days from now is about 41.86 (This Braskem SA probability density function shows the probability of Braskem Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Braskem SA price to stay between its current price of R$ 14.57  and R$ 17.66  at the end of the 90-day period is about 51.6 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Braskem SA has a beta of 0.43 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Braskem SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Braskem SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Braskem SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Braskem SA Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Braskem SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Braskem SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.0115.1017.19
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.1516.2418.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Braskem SA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Braskem SA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Braskem SA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Braskem SA.

Braskem SA Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Braskem SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Braskem SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Braskem SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Braskem SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.32
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.43
σ
Overall volatility
1.80
Ir
Information ratio -0.17

Braskem SA Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Braskem SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Braskem SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Braskem SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 97.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Braskem SA Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Braskem Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Braskem SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Braskem SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding797.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments12.2 B

Braskem SA Technical Analysis

Braskem SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Braskem Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Braskem SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Braskem Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Braskem SA Predictive Forecast Models

Braskem SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Braskem SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Braskem SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Braskem SA

Checking the ongoing alerts about Braskem SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Braskem SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Braskem SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 97.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Additional Tools for Braskem Stock Analysis

When running Braskem SA's price analysis, check to measure Braskem SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Braskem SA is operating at the current time. Most of Braskem SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Braskem SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Braskem SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Braskem SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.