BNP Paribas (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 49.75
| BNP Stock | 57.47 0.31 0.54% |
BNP |
BNP Paribas Target Price Odds to finish below 49.75
The tendency of BNP Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 49.75 or more in 90 days |
| 57.47 | 90 days | 49.75 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BNP Paribas to drop to 49.75 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This BNP Paribas SA probability density function shows the probability of BNP Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BNP Paribas SA price to stay between 49.75 and its current price of 57.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.85 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon BNP Paribas SA has a beta of -0.46 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding BNP Paribas are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, BNP Paribas SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally BNP Paribas SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. BNP Paribas Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BNP Paribas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BNP Paribas SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BNP Paribas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BNP Paribas Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BNP Paribas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BNP Paribas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BNP Paribas SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BNP Paribas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
BNP Paribas Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BNP Paribas for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BNP Paribas SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| BNP Paribas SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| BNP Paribas generates negative cash flow from operations |
BNP Paribas Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BNP Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BNP Paribas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BNP Paribas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B |
BNP Paribas Technical Analysis
BNP Paribas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BNP Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BNP Paribas SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing BNP Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BNP Paribas Predictive Forecast Models
BNP Paribas' time-series forecasting models is one of many BNP Paribas' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BNP Paribas' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about BNP Paribas SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about BNP Paribas for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BNP Paribas SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| BNP Paribas SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| BNP Paribas generates negative cash flow from operations |
Additional Tools for BNP Stock Analysis
When running BNP Paribas' price analysis, check to measure BNP Paribas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BNP Paribas is operating at the current time. Most of BNP Paribas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BNP Paribas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BNP Paribas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BNP Paribas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.