Brown Forman (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 41.54
| BF5B Stock | 35.48 0.78 2.15% |
Brown |
Brown Forman Target Price Odds to finish over 41.54
The tendency of Brown Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 41.54 or more in 90 days |
| 35.48 | 90 days | 41.54 | about 37.42 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Brown Forman to move over 41.54 or more in 90 days from now is about 37.42 (This Brown Forman Corp probability density function shows the probability of Brown Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Brown Forman Corp price to stay between its current price of 35.48 and 41.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 60.1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Brown Forman Corp has a beta of -0.12 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Brown Forman are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Brown Forman Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Brown Forman Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Brown Forman Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Brown Forman
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Brown Forman Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Brown Forman Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Brown Forman is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Brown Forman's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Brown Forman Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Brown Forman within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Brown Forman Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Brown Forman for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Brown Forman Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Brown Forman Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Brown Forman Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Brown Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Brown Forman's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Brown Forman's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 479 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 831 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 250 M |
Brown Forman Technical Analysis
Brown Forman's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Brown Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Brown Forman Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Brown Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Brown Forman Predictive Forecast Models
Brown Forman's time-series forecasting models is one of many Brown Forman's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Brown Forman's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Brown Forman Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Brown Forman for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Brown Forman Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Brown Forman Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Tools for Brown Stock Analysis
When running Brown Forman's price analysis, check to measure Brown Forman's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Brown Forman is operating at the current time. Most of Brown Forman's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Brown Forman's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Brown Forman's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Brown Forman to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.