Bayu Buana (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 868.13
| BAYU Stock | IDR 1,375 5.00 0.36% |
Bayu |
Bayu Buana Target Price Odds to finish below 868.13
The tendency of Bayu Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 868.13 or more in 90 days |
| 1,375 | 90 days | 868.13 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bayu Buana to drop to 868.13 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Bayu Buana Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Bayu Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bayu Buana Tbk price to stay between 868.13 and its current price of 1375.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.65 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Bayu Buana Tbk has a beta of -0.44 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Bayu Buana are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Bayu Buana Tbk is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Bayu Buana Tbk has an alpha of 0.0311, implying that it can generate a 0.0311 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Bayu Buana Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bayu Buana
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bayu Buana Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bayu Buana Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bayu Buana is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bayu Buana's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bayu Buana Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bayu Buana within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 37.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Bayu Buana Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bayu Buana for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bayu Buana Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bayu Buana generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 44.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Bayu Buana Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bayu Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bayu Buana's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bayu Buana's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 353.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 473.2 B |
Bayu Buana Technical Analysis
Bayu Buana's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bayu Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bayu Buana Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bayu Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bayu Buana Predictive Forecast Models
Bayu Buana's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bayu Buana's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bayu Buana's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bayu Buana Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bayu Buana for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bayu Buana Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bayu Buana generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 44.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Bayu Stock
Bayu Buana financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bayu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bayu with respect to the benefits of owning Bayu Buana security.