American Balanced Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 36.68

BALCX Fund  USD 36.84  0.07  0.19%   
American Balanced's future price is the expected price of American Balanced instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Balanced Fund performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out American Balanced Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American Balanced Correlation, American Balanced Hype Analysis, American Balanced Volatility, American Balanced History as well as American Balanced Performance.
  
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American Balanced Target Price Odds to finish below 36.68

The tendency of American Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 36.68  or more in 90 days
 36.84 90 days 36.68 
about 91.44
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Balanced to drop to $ 36.68  or more in 90 days from now is about 91.44 (This American Balanced Fund probability density function shows the probability of American Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Balanced price to stay between $ 36.68  and its current price of $36.84 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days horizon American Balanced has a beta of 0.0391 suggesting as returns on the market go up, American Balanced average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Balanced Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Balanced Fund has an alpha of 0.0681, implying that it can generate a 0.0681 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   American Balanced Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American Balanced

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Balanced. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Balanced's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
36.4136.8437.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
36.2436.6737.10
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
36.6037.0237.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
36.3536.6636.97
Details

American Balanced Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Balanced is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Balanced's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Balanced Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Balanced within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.07
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.04
σ
Overall volatility
0.49
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

American Balanced Technical Analysis

American Balanced's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Balanced Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Balanced Predictive Forecast Models

American Balanced's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Balanced's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Balanced's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Balanced in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Balanced's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Balanced options trading.

Other Information on Investing in American Mutual Fund

American Balanced financial ratios help investors to determine whether American Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in American with respect to the benefits of owning American Balanced security.
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