Azul SA (Brazil) Odds of Future Preferred Stock Price Finishing Under 4.16
| AZUL4 Preferred Stock | BRL 4.24 0.20 4.50% |
Azul |
Azul SA Target Price Odds to finish below 4.16
The tendency of Azul Preferred Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 4.16 or more in 90 days |
| 4.24 | 90 days | 4.16 | roughly 2.26 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Azul SA to drop to R$ 4.16 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.26 (This Azul SA probability density function shows the probability of Azul Preferred Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Azul SA price to stay between R$ 4.16 and its current price of R$4.24 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Azul SA has a beta of 0.43. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Azul SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Azul SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Azul SA has an alpha of 0.104, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Azul SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Azul SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Azul SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Azul SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Azul SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Azul SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Azul SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Azul SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.59 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Azul SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Azul SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Azul SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Azul SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Azul SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Azul SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Azul SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Azul SA has accumulated 20.39 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 122.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Azul SA has a current ratio of 0.43, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Azul SA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Azul SA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Azul SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Azul to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Azul SA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Azul SA has accumulated about 2.84 B in cash with (310.6 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.61, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 15.0% of Azul SA shares are held by company insiders |
Azul SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Azul Preferred Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Azul SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Azul SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 345.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.1 B |
Azul SA Technical Analysis
Azul SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Azul Preferred Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Azul SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Azul Preferred Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Azul SA Predictive Forecast Models
Azul SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Azul SA's preferred stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Azul SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the preferred stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Azul SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Azul SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Azul SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Azul SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Azul SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Azul SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Azul SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Azul SA has accumulated 20.39 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 122.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Azul SA has a current ratio of 0.43, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Azul SA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Azul SA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Azul SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Azul to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Azul SA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Azul SA has accumulated about 2.84 B in cash with (310.6 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.61, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 15.0% of Azul SA shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Azul Preferred Stock Analysis
When running Azul SA's price analysis, check to measure Azul SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Azul SA is operating at the current time. Most of Azul SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Azul SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Azul SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Azul SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.