Aurora Innovation Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.46
| AUR Stock | USD 8.06 0.07 0.88% |
Aurora |
Aurora Innovation Target Price Odds to finish over 5.46
The tendency of Aurora Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 5.46 in 90 days |
| 8.06 | 90 days | 5.46 | about 76.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aurora Innovation to stay above $ 5.46 in 90 days from now is about 76.75 (This Aurora Innovation probability density function shows the probability of Aurora Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aurora Innovation price to stay between $ 5.46 and its current price of $8.06 at the end of the 90-day period is about 76.29 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Aurora Innovation has a beta of -2.25. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Aurora Innovation are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Aurora Innovation is expected to outperform its benchmark. Moreover Aurora Innovation has an alpha of 1.0414, implying that it can generate a 1.04 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aurora Innovation Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Aurora Innovation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurora Innovation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aurora Innovation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aurora Innovation Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aurora Innovation is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aurora Innovation's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aurora Innovation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aurora Innovation within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -2.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Aurora Innovation Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aurora Innovation for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aurora Innovation can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aurora Innovation is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aurora Innovation appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Reported Net Loss for the year was (796 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 68 M. | |
| Aurora Innovation has about 1.38 B in cash with (598 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.2. | |
| Aurora Innovation has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 68.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Aurora Innovation Inc Expands with New Facility in Bozeman, Montana |
Aurora Innovation Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aurora Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aurora Innovation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurora Innovation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B | |
| Shares Float | 961.9 M |
Aurora Innovation Technical Analysis
Aurora Innovation's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aurora Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aurora Innovation. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aurora Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aurora Innovation Predictive Forecast Models
Aurora Innovation's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aurora Innovation's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aurora Innovation's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aurora Innovation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aurora Innovation for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aurora Innovation help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aurora Innovation is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aurora Innovation appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Reported Net Loss for the year was (796 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 68 M. | |
| Aurora Innovation has about 1.38 B in cash with (598 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.2. | |
| Aurora Innovation has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 68.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Aurora Innovation Inc Expands with New Facility in Bozeman, Montana |
Additional Tools for Aurora Stock Analysis
When running Aurora Innovation's price analysis, check to measure Aurora Innovation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurora Innovation is operating at the current time. Most of Aurora Innovation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurora Innovation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurora Innovation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurora Innovation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.