Alger Spectra Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 32.07

ASPYX Fund  USD 33.22  0.41  1.25%   
Alger Spectra's future price is the expected price of Alger Spectra instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Alger Spectra performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Alger Spectra Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Alger Spectra Correlation, Alger Spectra Hype Analysis, Alger Spectra Volatility, Alger Spectra History as well as Alger Spectra Performance.
  
Please specify Alger Spectra's target price for which you would like Alger Spectra odds to be computed.

Alger Spectra Target Price Odds to finish below 32.07

The tendency of Alger Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 32.07  or more in 90 days
 33.22 90 days 32.07 
about 89.3
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alger Spectra to drop to $ 32.07  or more in 90 days from now is about 89.3 (This Alger Spectra probability density function shows the probability of Alger Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alger Spectra price to stay between $ 32.07  and its current price of $33.22 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.9 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Alger Spectra has a beta of 0.11. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alger Spectra average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alger Spectra will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alger Spectra has an alpha of 0.2419, implying that it can generate a 0.24 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Alger Spectra Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Alger Spectra

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alger Spectra. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alger Spectra's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
32.0733.2234.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
29.9035.1436.29
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
32.0133.1634.32
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
31.8332.3832.92
Details

Alger Spectra Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alger Spectra is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alger Spectra's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alger Spectra, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alger Spectra within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.24
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.11
σ
Overall volatility
1.69
Ir
Information ratio 0.1

Alger Spectra Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alger Spectra for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alger Spectra can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund holds 101.76% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Alger Spectra Technical Analysis

Alger Spectra's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alger Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alger Spectra. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alger Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Alger Spectra Predictive Forecast Models

Alger Spectra's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alger Spectra's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alger Spectra's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Alger Spectra

Checking the ongoing alerts about Alger Spectra for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alger Spectra help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund holds 101.76% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Other Information on Investing in Alger Mutual Fund

Alger Spectra financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alger Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alger with respect to the benefits of owning Alger Spectra security.
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