ASM International (Netherlands) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 566.11

ASM Stock  EUR 523.80  4.60  0.87%   
ASM International's future price is the expected price of ASM International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of ASM International NV performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out ASM International Backtesting, ASM International Valuation, ASM International Correlation, ASM International Hype Analysis, ASM International Volatility, ASM International History as well as ASM International Performance.
  
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ASM International Target Price Odds to finish over 566.11

The tendency of ASM Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over € 566.11  or more in 90 days
 523.80 90 days 566.11 
about 17.38
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ASM International to move over € 566.11  or more in 90 days from now is about 17.38 (This ASM International NV probability density function shows the probability of ASM Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ASM International price to stay between its current price of € 523.80  and € 566.11  at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ASM International NV has a beta of -0.18. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ASM International are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ASM International NV is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ASM International NV has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   ASM International Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for ASM International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASM International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
521.10523.80526.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
445.59448.29576.18
Details

ASM International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ASM International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ASM International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ASM International NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ASM International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.05
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.18
σ
Overall volatility
33.02
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

ASM International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ASM International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ASM International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
ASM International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 64.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

ASM International Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ASM Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ASM International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ASM International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding48.6 M

ASM International Technical Analysis

ASM International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ASM Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ASM International NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing ASM Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

ASM International Predictive Forecast Models

ASM International's time-series forecasting models is one of many ASM International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ASM International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about ASM International

Checking the ongoing alerts about ASM International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ASM International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
ASM International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 64.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

Additional Tools for ASM Stock Analysis

When running ASM International's price analysis, check to measure ASM International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ASM International is operating at the current time. Most of ASM International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ASM International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ASM International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ASM International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.