AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS (Mauritius) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 36.26
| ASL Stock | 79.00 4.00 5.33% |
AUTOMATIC |
AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS Target Price Odds to finish below 36.26
The tendency of AUTOMATIC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 36.26 or more in 90 days |
| 79.00 | 90 days | 36.26 | about 6.46 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS to drop to 36.26 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.46 (This AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS LTD probability density function shows the probability of AUTOMATIC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS LTD price to stay between 36.26 and its current price of 79.0 at the end of the 90-day period is more than 93.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS has a beta of 0.65. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS LTD will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS LTD has an alpha of 0.8098, implying that it can generate a 0.81 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS LTD. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS LTD, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.81 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.26 |
AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS Technical Analysis
AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AUTOMATIC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS LTD. In general, you should focus on analyzing AUTOMATIC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS Predictive Forecast Models
AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS's time-series forecasting models is one of many AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from AUTOMATIC SYSTEMS options trading.