Asara Resources (Australia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.0168
| AS1 Stock | 0.02 0 4.55% |
Asara |
Asara Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 0.0168
The tendency of Asara Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 0.02 or more in 90 days |
| 0.02 | 90 days | 0.02 | about 43.88 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Asara Resources to drop to 0.02 or more in 90 days from now is about 43.88 (This Asara Resources probability density function shows the probability of Asara Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Asara Resources price to stay between 0.02 and its current price of 0.023 at the end of the 90-day period is about 44.4 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Asara Resources has a beta of -0.2. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Asara Resources are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Asara Resources is likely to outperform the market. Moreover Asara Resources has an alpha of 1.3647, implying that it can generate a 1.36 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Asara Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Asara Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Asara Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Asara Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Asara Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Asara Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Asara Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Asara Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.36 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
Asara Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Asara Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Asara Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Asara Resources is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Asara Resources has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Asara Resources appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 8.89 K. Net Loss for the year was (8.07 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.64 M. | |
| Asara Resources generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 47.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Asara Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Asara Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Asara Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Asara Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 591.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 M |
Asara Resources Technical Analysis
Asara Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Asara Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Asara Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Asara Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Asara Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Asara Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Asara Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Asara Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Asara Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about Asara Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Asara Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Asara Resources is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Asara Resources has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Asara Resources appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 8.89 K. Net Loss for the year was (8.07 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.64 M. | |
| Asara Resources generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 47.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Asara Stock Analysis
When running Asara Resources' price analysis, check to measure Asara Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Asara Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Asara Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Asara Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Asara Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Asara Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.