Armour Residential Reit Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.08
| ARR Stock | USD 19.40 0.03 0.15% |
Closest to current price ARMOUR long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
ARMOUR |
ARMOUR Residential Target Price Odds to finish below 19.08
The tendency of ARMOUR Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 19.08 or more in 90 days |
| 19.40 | 90 days | 19.08 | about 35.19 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ARMOUR Residential to drop to $ 19.08 or more in 90 days from now is about 35.19 (This ARMOUR Residential REIT probability density function shows the probability of ARMOUR Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ARMOUR Residential REIT price to stay between $ 19.08 and its current price of $19.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 23.23 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon ARMOUR Residential has a beta of 0.41. This suggests as returns on the market go up, ARMOUR Residential average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ARMOUR Residential REIT will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ARMOUR Residential REIT has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ARMOUR Residential Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ARMOUR Residential
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ARMOUR Residential REIT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ARMOUR Residential Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ARMOUR Residential is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ARMOUR Residential's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ARMOUR Residential REIT, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ARMOUR Residential within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.54 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
ARMOUR Residential Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ARMOUR Residential for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ARMOUR Residential REIT can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ARMOUR Residential generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ARMOUR Residential has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 449.67 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (67.92 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (192.1 M). | |
| On 27th of November 2024 ARMOUR Residential paid $ 0.24 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Will CrowdStrike Stock Continue Its Uptrend After percent YTD Surge |
ARMOUR Residential Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ARMOUR Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ARMOUR Residential's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ARMOUR Residential's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 221.9 M |
ARMOUR Residential Technical Analysis
ARMOUR Residential's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ARMOUR Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ARMOUR Residential REIT. In general, you should focus on analyzing ARMOUR Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ARMOUR Residential Predictive Forecast Models
ARMOUR Residential's time-series forecasting models is one of many ARMOUR Residential's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ARMOUR Residential's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ARMOUR Residential REIT
Checking the ongoing alerts about ARMOUR Residential for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ARMOUR Residential REIT help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ARMOUR Residential generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ARMOUR Residential has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 449.67 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (67.92 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (192.1 M). | |
| On 27th of November 2024 ARMOUR Residential paid $ 0.24 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Will CrowdStrike Stock Continue Its Uptrend After percent YTD Surge |
Additional Tools for ARMOUR Stock Analysis
When running ARMOUR Residential's price analysis, check to measure ARMOUR Residential's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ARMOUR Residential is operating at the current time. Most of ARMOUR Residential's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ARMOUR Residential's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ARMOUR Residential's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ARMOUR Residential to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.