Ardent Health Partners, Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.43
| ARDT Stock | 15.98 0.04 0.25% |
Ardent |
Ardent Health Target Price Odds to finish below 12.43
The tendency of Ardent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 12.43 or more in 90 days |
| 15.98 | 90 days | 12.43 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ardent Health to drop to 12.43 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Ardent Health Partners, probability density function shows the probability of Ardent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ardent Health Partners, price to stay between 12.43 and its current price of 15.98 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ardent Health has a beta of 0.1. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Ardent Health average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ardent Health Partners, will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ardent Health Partners, has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ardent Health Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ardent Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ardent Health Partners,. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ardent Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ardent Health Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ardent Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ardent Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ardent Health Partners,, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ardent Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Ardent Health Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ardent Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ardent Health Partners, can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ardent Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ardent Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Ardent Health is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 62.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Ardent Health Partners, LLC Receives Consensus Recommendation of Buy from Brokerages - MarketBeat |
Ardent Health Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ardent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ardent Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ardent Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 143.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 437.6 M |
Ardent Health Technical Analysis
Ardent Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ardent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ardent Health Partners,. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ardent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ardent Health Predictive Forecast Models
Ardent Health's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ardent Health's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ardent Health's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ardent Health Partners,
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ardent Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ardent Health Partners, help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ardent Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ardent Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Ardent Health is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 62.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Ardent Health Partners, LLC Receives Consensus Recommendation of Buy from Brokerages - MarketBeat |
Additional Tools for Ardent Stock Analysis
When running Ardent Health's price analysis, check to measure Ardent Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ardent Health is operating at the current time. Most of Ardent Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ardent Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ardent Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ardent Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.