Aptevo Therapeutics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3776.96
| APVO Stock | USD 9.20 0.47 5.38% |
Aptevo |
Aptevo Therapeutics Target Price Odds to finish below 3776.96
The tendency of Aptevo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 3,777 after 90 days |
| 9.20 | 90 days | 3,777 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aptevo Therapeutics to stay under $ 3,777 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Aptevo Therapeutics probability density function shows the probability of Aptevo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aptevo Therapeutics price to stay between its current price of $ 9.20 and $ 3,777 at the end of the 90-day period is about 44.75 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aptevo Therapeutics has a beta of 0.17. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aptevo Therapeutics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aptevo Therapeutics will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aptevo Therapeutics has an alpha of 0.1991, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aptevo Therapeutics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aptevo Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aptevo Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aptevo Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aptevo Therapeutics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aptevo Therapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aptevo Therapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aptevo Therapeutics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aptevo Therapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.43 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Aptevo Therapeutics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aptevo Therapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aptevo Therapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aptevo Therapeutics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Aptevo Therapeutics has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Aptevo Therapeuticshas 734,635 shares shorted by Aptevo Therapeutics investors is about 100% of outstending shares | |
| Net Loss for the year was (17.41 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.11 M. | |
| Aptevo Therapeutics currently holds about 29.43 M in cash with (11.73 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.78. | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Aptevo Therapeutics executes reverse stock split |
Aptevo Therapeutics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aptevo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aptevo Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aptevo Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 278.1 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 16.9 M |
Aptevo Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Aptevo Therapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aptevo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aptevo Therapeutics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aptevo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aptevo Therapeutics Predictive Forecast Models
Aptevo Therapeutics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aptevo Therapeutics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aptevo Therapeutics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aptevo Therapeutics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aptevo Therapeutics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aptevo Therapeutics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aptevo Therapeutics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Aptevo Therapeutics has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Aptevo Therapeuticshas 734,635 shares shorted by Aptevo Therapeutics investors is about 100% of outstending shares | |
| Net Loss for the year was (17.41 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.11 M. | |
| Aptevo Therapeutics currently holds about 29.43 M in cash with (11.73 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.78. | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Aptevo Therapeutics executes reverse stock split |
Check out Aptevo Therapeutics Backtesting, Aptevo Therapeutics Valuation, Aptevo Therapeutics Correlation, Aptevo Therapeutics Hype Analysis, Aptevo Therapeutics Volatility, Aptevo Therapeutics History as well as Aptevo Therapeutics Performance. To learn how to invest in Aptevo Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aptevo Therapeutics guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aptevo Therapeutics. If investors know Aptevo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aptevo Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (415.99) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) | Return On Assets (0.73) | Return On Equity (2.51) |
The market value of Aptevo Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aptevo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aptevo Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aptevo Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aptevo Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aptevo Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aptevo Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aptevo Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aptevo Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.