Arita Prima (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 180.46
| APII Stock | IDR 176.00 3.00 1.73% |
Arita |
Arita Prima Target Price Odds to finish over 180.46
The tendency of Arita Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 180.46 or more in 90 days |
| 176.00 | 90 days | 180.46 | about 16.8 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arita Prima to move over 180.46 or more in 90 days from now is about 16.8 (This Arita Prima Indonesia probability density function shows the probability of Arita Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arita Prima Indonesia price to stay between its current price of 176.00 and 180.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 54.96 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Arita Prima has a beta of 0.11. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Arita Prima average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Arita Prima Indonesia will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Arita Prima Indonesia has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Arita Prima Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arita Prima
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arita Prima Indonesia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arita Prima Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arita Prima is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arita Prima's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arita Prima Indonesia, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arita Prima within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.90 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Arita Prima Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arita Prima for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arita Prima Indonesia can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arita Prima generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 77.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Arita Prima Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arita Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arita Prima's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arita Prima's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.2 B |
Arita Prima Technical Analysis
Arita Prima's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arita Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arita Prima Indonesia. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arita Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arita Prima Predictive Forecast Models
Arita Prima's time-series forecasting models is one of many Arita Prima's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arita Prima's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arita Prima Indonesia
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arita Prima for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arita Prima Indonesia help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arita Prima generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 77.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Arita Stock
Arita Prima financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arita Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arita with respect to the benefits of owning Arita Prima security.