Admiral Group Plc Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 37.73
| AMIGY Stock | USD 34.02 0.28 0.82% |
Admiral |
Admiral Group Target Price Odds to finish below 37.73
The tendency of Admiral Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 37.73 after 90 days |
| 34.02 | 90 days | 37.73 | about 90.29 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Admiral Group to stay under $ 37.73 after 90 days from now is about 90.29 (This Admiral Group PLC probability density function shows the probability of Admiral Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Admiral Group PLC price to stay between its current price of $ 34.02 and $ 37.73 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.71 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Admiral Group has a beta of 0.22. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Admiral Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Admiral Group PLC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Admiral Group PLC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Admiral Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Admiral Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Admiral Group PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Admiral Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Admiral Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Admiral Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Admiral Group PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Admiral Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Admiral Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Admiral Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Admiral Group PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Admiral Group PLC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Admiral Group PLC has accumulated 670.9 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.86, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Admiral Group PLC has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Admiral Group until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Admiral Group's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Admiral Group PLC sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Admiral to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Admiral Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Admiral Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Admiral Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Admiral Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Admiral Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 298.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 372.7 M |
Admiral Group Technical Analysis
Admiral Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Admiral Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Admiral Group PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Admiral Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Admiral Group Predictive Forecast Models
Admiral Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Admiral Group's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Admiral Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Admiral Group PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Admiral Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Admiral Group PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Admiral Group PLC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Admiral Group PLC has accumulated 670.9 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.86, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Admiral Group PLC has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Admiral Group until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Admiral Group's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Admiral Group PLC sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Admiral to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Admiral Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Additional Tools for Admiral Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Admiral Group's price analysis, check to measure Admiral Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Admiral Group is operating at the current time. Most of Admiral Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Admiral Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Admiral Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Admiral Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.