Us Commodity Funds Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 30.1
| ALUM Etf | 33.21 2.43 6.82% |
ALUM |
US Commodity Target Price Odds to finish below 30.1
The tendency of ALUM Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 30.10 or more in 90 days |
| 33.21 | 90 days | 30.10 | about 31.51 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of US Commodity to drop to 30.10 or more in 90 days from now is about 31.51 (This US Commodity Funds probability density function shows the probability of ALUM Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of US Commodity Funds price to stay between 30.10 and its current price of 33.21 at the end of the 90-day period is about 60.51 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days US Commodity has a beta of 0.11. This suggests as returns on the market go up, US Commodity average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding US Commodity Funds will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally US Commodity Funds has an alpha of 0.0864, implying that it can generate a 0.0864 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). US Commodity Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for US Commodity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US Commodity Funds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of US Commodity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
US Commodity Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. US Commodity is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the US Commodity's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold US Commodity Funds, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of US Commodity within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0063 |
US Commodity Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of US Commodity for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for US Commodity Funds can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| US Commodity Funds is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| The fund yields -1.0% to date and shows negative annual yield of 1.0% | |
| US Commodity Funds holds 99.92% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
US Commodity Technical Analysis
US Commodity's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ALUM Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of US Commodity Funds. In general, you should focus on analyzing ALUM Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
US Commodity Predictive Forecast Models
US Commodity's time-series forecasting models is one of many US Commodity's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary US Commodity's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about US Commodity Funds
Checking the ongoing alerts about US Commodity for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for US Commodity Funds help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| US Commodity Funds is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| The fund yields -1.0% to date and shows negative annual yield of 1.0% | |
| US Commodity Funds holds 99.92% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
The market value of US Commodity Funds is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ALUM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of US Commodity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is US Commodity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because US Commodity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect US Commodity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between US Commodity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if US Commodity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, US Commodity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.