Allpark Empreendimentos (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.42
| ALPK3 Stock | BRL 2.94 0.27 10.11% |
Allpark |
Allpark Empreendimentos Target Price Odds to finish below 2.42
The tendency of Allpark Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 2.42 or more in 90 days |
| 2.94 | 90 days | 2.42 | roughly 2.26 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Allpark Empreendimentos to drop to R$ 2.42 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.26 (This Allpark Empreendimentos Participaes probability density function shows the probability of Allpark Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Allpark Empreendimentos price to stay between R$ 2.42 and its current price of R$2.94 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.2 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Allpark Empreendimentos has a beta of 0.35. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Allpark Empreendimentos average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Allpark Empreendimentos Participaes will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Allpark Empreendimentos Participaes has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Allpark Empreendimentos Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Allpark Empreendimentos
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allpark Empreendimentos. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Allpark Empreendimentos Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Allpark Empreendimentos is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Allpark Empreendimentos' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Allpark Empreendimentos Participaes, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Allpark Empreendimentos within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Allpark Empreendimentos Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Allpark Empreendimentos for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Allpark Empreendimentos can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Allpark Empreendimentos generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Allpark Empreendimentos has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Allpark Empreendimentos has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Allpark Empreendimentos Participaes has accumulated 950.52 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.15, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Allpark Empreendimentos has a current ratio of 0.25, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Allpark Empreendimentos until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Allpark Empreendimentos' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Allpark Empreendimentos sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Allpark to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Allpark Empreendimentos' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 834.93 M. Net Loss for the year was (223.36 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 206.91 M. | |
| About 72.0% of Allpark Empreendimentos shares are held by company insiders |
Allpark Empreendimentos Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Allpark Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Allpark Empreendimentos' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allpark Empreendimentos' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 209.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 96.4 M |
Allpark Empreendimentos Technical Analysis
Allpark Empreendimentos' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Allpark Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Allpark Empreendimentos Participaes. In general, you should focus on analyzing Allpark Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Allpark Empreendimentos Predictive Forecast Models
Allpark Empreendimentos' time-series forecasting models is one of many Allpark Empreendimentos' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Allpark Empreendimentos' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Allpark Empreendimentos
Checking the ongoing alerts about Allpark Empreendimentos for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Allpark Empreendimentos help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Allpark Empreendimentos generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Allpark Empreendimentos has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Allpark Empreendimentos has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Allpark Empreendimentos Participaes has accumulated 950.52 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.15, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Allpark Empreendimentos has a current ratio of 0.25, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Allpark Empreendimentos until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Allpark Empreendimentos' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Allpark Empreendimentos sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Allpark to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Allpark Empreendimentos' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 834.93 M. Net Loss for the year was (223.36 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 206.91 M. | |
| About 72.0% of Allpark Empreendimentos shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Allpark Stock Analysis
When running Allpark Empreendimentos' price analysis, check to measure Allpark Empreendimentos' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allpark Empreendimentos is operating at the current time. Most of Allpark Empreendimentos' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allpark Empreendimentos' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allpark Empreendimentos' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allpark Empreendimentos to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.