Allegiant Travel Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 54.97
| ALGT Stock | USD 82.78 0.52 0.63% |
Closest to current price Allegiant long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Allegiant |
Allegiant Travel Target Price Odds to finish below 54.97
The tendency of Allegiant Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 54.97 or more in 90 days |
| 82.78 | 90 days | 54.97 | about 26.92 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Allegiant Travel to drop to $ 54.97 or more in 90 days from now is about 26.92 (This Allegiant Travel probability density function shows the probability of Allegiant Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Allegiant Travel price to stay between $ 54.97 and its current price of $82.78 at the end of the 90-day period is about 66.03 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.99 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Allegiant Travel will likely underperform. Additionally Allegiant Travel has an alpha of 0.862, implying that it can generate a 0.86 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Allegiant Travel Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Allegiant Travel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allegiant Travel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Allegiant Travel Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Allegiant Travel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Allegiant Travel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Allegiant Travel, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Allegiant Travel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.86 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.99 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 13.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.29 |
Allegiant Travel Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Allegiant Travel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Allegiant Travel can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Allegiant Travel appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Allegiant Travel Stock Surges Amid Mixed Financial Performance |
Allegiant Travel Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Allegiant Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Allegiant Travel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allegiant Travel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 814.7 M |
Allegiant Travel Technical Analysis
Allegiant Travel's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Allegiant Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Allegiant Travel. In general, you should focus on analyzing Allegiant Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Allegiant Travel Predictive Forecast Models
Allegiant Travel's time-series forecasting models is one of many Allegiant Travel's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Allegiant Travel's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Allegiant Travel
Checking the ongoing alerts about Allegiant Travel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Allegiant Travel help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Allegiant Travel appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Allegiant Travel Stock Surges Amid Mixed Financial Performance |
Additional Tools for Allegiant Stock Analysis
When running Allegiant Travel's price analysis, check to measure Allegiant Travel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allegiant Travel is operating at the current time. Most of Allegiant Travel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allegiant Travel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allegiant Travel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allegiant Travel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.