Alarko Holding (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 109.52
| ALARK Stock | TRY 93.00 1.35 1.47% |
Alarko |
Alarko Holding Target Price Odds to finish over 109.52
The tendency of Alarko Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 109.52 or more in 90 days |
| 93.00 | 90 days | 109.52 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alarko Holding to move over 109.52 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Alarko Holding AS probability density function shows the probability of Alarko Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alarko Holding AS price to stay between its current price of 93.00 and 109.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.92 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alarko Holding has a beta of 0.61. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alarko Holding average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alarko Holding AS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alarko Holding AS has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Alarko Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alarko Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alarko Holding AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alarko Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alarko Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alarko Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alarko Holding AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alarko Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Alarko Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alarko Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alarko Holding AS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alarko Holding AS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 67.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Alarko Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alarko Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alarko Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alarko Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 434.5 M |
Alarko Holding Technical Analysis
Alarko Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alarko Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alarko Holding AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alarko Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alarko Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Alarko Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alarko Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alarko Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alarko Holding AS
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alarko Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alarko Holding AS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alarko Holding AS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 67.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Alarko Stock
Alarko Holding financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alarko Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alarko with respect to the benefits of owning Alarko Holding security.